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EU denies any links between Russian gas purchases, Ukraine peace talks The European Union is rejecting any connection between the possibility of resuming Russian pipeline gas purchases and peace talks on ending the Russia-Ukraine war, European Commission Chief Spokesperson Paula Pinho said on Jan. 30 during a press briefing. Earlier the same day, the Financial Times (FT) reported that EU officials are discussing the possibility of resuming purchases of Russian pipeline gas as part of a potential settlement of Russia's war in Ukraine. Proponents of the proposal, including Hungarian and German officials, argued that the move could give Russia and Europe incentives to maintain a peace agreement while stabilizing the continent's energy market, according to the FT. "We are not making any links to peace talks for the moment. The line has been set on this. Whenever we have such talks when that moment comes, it will be with Ukraine," Pinho said. "We do not confirm any links reported in the article this morning about any links between the transit of gas through Ukraine and any peace talks," she added. Before the full-scale war, Russian pipeline gas represented roughly 40% of the EU's overall purchases, with Germany being the chief buyer. The European Commission aims to eliminate Russian fossil fuels from the European Union's energy market by 2027. Despite the almost complete halt of Russian pipeline gas flowing to the EU, European countries have ramped up purchases of Russia's liquified natural gas (LNG) in 2024. Previously, Ukraine ended the transit of Russian gas to Europe on Jan. 1, following the end of the contract. Some EU countries, including Hungary and Slovakia, still rely on Russian gas in their energy system. Following Ukraine's termination of Russian gas transportation through its territory, gas prices in Europe rose by 4.3% to almost 51 euros per megawatt-hour. This rise is the highest since October 2023 and comes ahead of freezing temperatures forecast across much of Europe. As Russia cuts Transnistria from gas, stranded locals search for someone to blame VARNIȚA, Moldova — The buzzing sound of chainsaws and generators is now common in Varnița, a village of 5,000 that borders Moldova’s Russian-controlled region of Transnistria. Located next to the Russian-controlled city of Bender (Tighina), the village is subordinated to Chișinău but depends on the… The Kyiv IndependentPaula Erizanu

EU denies any links between Russian gas purchases, Ukraine peace talks The European Union is rejecting any connection between the possibility of resuming Russian pipeline gas purchases and peace talks on ending the Russia-Ukraine war, European Commission Chief Spokesperson Paula Pinho said on Jan. 30 during a press briefing. Earlier the same day, the Financial Times (FT) reported that EU officials are discussing the possibility of resuming purchases of Russian pipeline gas as part of a potential settlement of Russia's war in Ukraine. Proponents of the proposal, including Hungarian and German officials, argued that the move could give Russia and Europe incentives to maintain a peace agreement while stabilizing the continent's energy market, according to the FT. "We are not making any links to peace talks for the moment. The line has been set on this. Whenever we have such talks when that moment comes, it will be with Ukraine," Pinho said. "We do not confirm any links reported in the article this morning about any links between the transit of gas through Ukraine and any peace talks," she added. Before the full-scale war, Russian pipeline gas represented roughly 40% of the EU's overall purchases, with Germany being the chief buyer. The European Commission aims to eliminate Russian fossil fuels from the European Union's energy market by 2027. Despite the almost complete halt of Russian pipeline gas flowing to the EU, European countries have ramped up purchases of Russia's liquified natural gas (LNG) in 2024. Previously, Ukraine ended the transit of Russian gas to Europe on Jan. 1, following the end of the contract. Some EU countries, including Hungary and Slovakia, still rely on Russian gas in their energy system. Following Ukraine's termination of Russian gas transportation through its territory, gas prices in Europe rose by 4.3% to almost 51 euros per megawatt-hour. This rise is the highest since October 2023 and comes ahead of freezing temperatures forecast across much of Europe. As Russia cuts Transnistria from gas, stranded locals search for someone to blame VARNIȚA, Moldova — The buzzing sound of chainsaws and generators is now common in Varnița, a village of 5,000 that borders Moldova’s Russian-controlled region of Transnistria. Located next to the Russian-controlled city of Bender (Tighina), the village is subordinated to Chișinău but depends on the… The Kyiv IndependentPaula Erizanu

02:34
Macron rules out sending French troops to Ukraine's frontlines France will not send its soldiers to the frontline in Ukraine, French President Emmanuel Macron said in a television interview on Feb. 18. Macron invited European leaders to an emergency summit in Paris on Feb. 17 in response to U.S. officials saying Europe will not participate in Ukraine peace talks. France is set to host a second summit on Feb. 19 to continue discussions of security guarantees for Ukraine. "France is not preparing to send combat ground troops to the front," Macron said. In partnership with the British, France is ready to consider sending experts or even a limited number of troops beyond the frontline to demonstrate solidarity and help Ukraine defend itself, Macron said. Supporting NATO membership for Ukraine is among the several ways France is ready to support Ukraine in its battle against Russia's aggression, Macron added. U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer signaled that his country is prepared to send British troops to Ukraine as part of a European-led peacekeeping force on Feb. 16. U.S. President Donald Trump said he is not opposed to European peacekeepers monitoring a ceasefire in Ukraine on Feb. 18. Macron called for Ukraine's "automatic membership in NATO" in the event of a violation by Russia in a potential ceasefire at an emergency summit held in France on Feb. 17. Plokhy argues in Chornobyl occupation book that Russia’s nuclear blackmail is ‘warning for the future’ The specter of nuclear war cast a long shadow over the 20th century, serving as a reminder of humanity’s capacity for self-destruction. Now, as the world seems to shrug off Russia’s nuclear saber-rattling against Ukraine — and by extension, all of humanity — a haunting question calls for an answer:… The Kyiv IndependentKate Tsurkan

Macron rules out sending French troops to Ukraine's frontlines France will not send its soldiers to the frontline in Ukraine, French President Emmanuel Macron said in a television interview on Feb. 18. Macron invited European leaders to an emergency summit in Paris on Feb. 17 in response to U.S. officials saying Europe will not participate in Ukraine peace talks. France is set to host a second summit on Feb. 19 to continue discussions of security guarantees for Ukraine. "France is not preparing to send combat ground troops to the front," Macron said. In partnership with the British, France is ready to consider sending experts or even a limited number of troops beyond the frontline to demonstrate solidarity and help Ukraine defend itself, Macron said. Supporting NATO membership for Ukraine is among the several ways France is ready to support Ukraine in its battle against Russia's aggression, Macron added. U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer signaled that his country is prepared to send British troops to Ukraine as part of a European-led peacekeeping force on Feb. 16. U.S. President Donald Trump said he is not opposed to European peacekeepers monitoring a ceasefire in Ukraine on Feb. 18. Macron called for Ukraine's "automatic membership in NATO" in the event of a violation by Russia in a potential ceasefire at an emergency summit held in France on Feb. 17. Plokhy argues in Chornobyl occupation book that Russia’s nuclear blackmail is ‘warning for the future’ The specter of nuclear war cast a long shadow over the 20th century, serving as a reminder of humanity’s capacity for self-destruction. Now, as the world seems to shrug off Russia’s nuclear saber-rattling against Ukraine — and by extension, all of humanity — a haunting question calls for an answer:… The Kyiv IndependentKate Tsurkan

17:34
Russia's Soviet-era military stockpile running low, faces equipment shortages, media reports Russia has depleted much of its Soviet-era military-industrial stockpile, with remaining equipment in poor condition, the independent media outlet The Insider reported on Jan. 28. The Russian military has lost more than half of its available equipment, and unless an unexpected shift occurs, hostilities could gradually fade by late 2025 or early 2026 due to a shortage of tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery, the publication claims. This comes as U.S. President Donald Trump urged Russia to "make a deal" to end the war in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has since said Moscow is ready to hold talks with Trump. The Insider reported that both Russian and Ukrainian forces are primarily losing Soviet-era equipment, with Russian losses now accounting for about 50% of its total stock. Much of the remaining equipment in storage is in poor technical condition, making it unlikely to be repaired and deployed to the front lines. The number of combat-ready vehicles Russia could still send to the front is estimated at around 2,000 tanks, 2,000 infantry fighting vehicles (BMPs), and 3,000 armored personnel carriers (APCs). Moscow is also reportedly facing production limitations. The only infantry fighting vehicle in large-scale production remains the BMP-3, with 463 units produced in 2023. Modern BTR-82 armored personnel carrier production is estimated at 300–400 units annually. Russian assault intensity declines, focus on Pokrovsk sector, monitoring group reports Despite suffering heavy losses, Russian forces have reportedly been able to replenish their combat strength. The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy The decline in Russia's equipment stockpile coincides with a slowdown in assault operations in Ukraine, though fighting remains intense, according to the monitoring group DeepState. As of late January, 44% of Russian attacks have been concentrated in the Pokrovsk sector, a key logistics hub for Ukrainian forces in Donetsk Oblast. The peak of Russia's offensives occurred in December, following a surge in late November. Amid these trends, U.S. peace envoy Keith Kellogg suggested on Jan. 24 that tighter restrictions on Russia's oil industry could pressure the Kremlin to negotiate. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov earlier on Dec. 29 expressed dissatisfaction with Trump's team's reported peace proposals, particularly the idea of freezing hostilities along the current line of contact. Putin later reiterated his claim that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has "no right to sign any documents" in potential negotiations, reaffirming that Russia is prepared to hold talks with Trump. Romania’s presidential candidate Georgescu calls Ukraine ‘fictional state,’ suggests annexing territory “On 100% it will happen,” Calin Georgescu said in the interview with journalist Ion Cristoiu about redrawing Ukraine’s borders as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war, suggesting Romania could claim some of Ukraine’s regions. The Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek

Russia's Soviet-era military stockpile running low, faces equipment shortages, media reports Russia has depleted much of its Soviet-era military-industrial stockpile, with remaining equipment in poor condition, the independent media outlet The Insider reported on Jan. 28. The Russian military has lost more than half of its available equipment, and unless an unexpected shift occurs, hostilities could gradually fade by late 2025 or early 2026 due to a shortage of tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery, the publication claims. This comes as U.S. President Donald Trump urged Russia to "make a deal" to end the war in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has since said Moscow is ready to hold talks with Trump. The Insider reported that both Russian and Ukrainian forces are primarily losing Soviet-era equipment, with Russian losses now accounting for about 50% of its total stock. Much of the remaining equipment in storage is in poor technical condition, making it unlikely to be repaired and deployed to the front lines. The number of combat-ready vehicles Russia could still send to the front is estimated at around 2,000 tanks, 2,000 infantry fighting vehicles (BMPs), and 3,000 armored personnel carriers (APCs). Moscow is also reportedly facing production limitations. The only infantry fighting vehicle in large-scale production remains the BMP-3, with 463 units produced in 2023. Modern BTR-82 armored personnel carrier production is estimated at 300–400 units annually. Russian assault intensity declines, focus on Pokrovsk sector, monitoring group reports Despite suffering heavy losses, Russian forces have reportedly been able to replenish their combat strength. The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy The decline in Russia's equipment stockpile coincides with a slowdown in assault operations in Ukraine, though fighting remains intense, according to the monitoring group DeepState. As of late January, 44% of Russian attacks have been concentrated in the Pokrovsk sector, a key logistics hub for Ukrainian forces in Donetsk Oblast. The peak of Russia's offensives occurred in December, following a surge in late November. Amid these trends, U.S. peace envoy Keith Kellogg suggested on Jan. 24 that tighter restrictions on Russia's oil industry could pressure the Kremlin to negotiate. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov earlier on Dec. 29 expressed dissatisfaction with Trump's team's reported peace proposals, particularly the idea of freezing hostilities along the current line of contact. Putin later reiterated his claim that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has "no right to sign any documents" in potential negotiations, reaffirming that Russia is prepared to hold talks with Trump. Romania’s presidential candidate Georgescu calls Ukraine ‘fictional state,’ suggests annexing territory “On 100% it will happen,” Calin Georgescu said in the interview with journalist Ion Cristoiu about redrawing Ukraine’s borders as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war, suggesting Romania could claim some of Ukraine’s regions. The Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek

04:34
Minority calls off #OccupyBOGProtest after crunch meeting with police

Minority calls off #OccupyBOGProtest after crunch meeting with police

19:10
'I don't trust a lot of people' — Trump offers contradictory views on Putin's intentions in interview on first 100 days U.S. President Donald Trump offered varying contradictory assessments of Russian President Vladimir Putin's intentions to put an end to the war in Ukraine during an interview with ABC News on April 29. The interview, focused on Trump's first 100 days in office, posed Trump's strikingly different opinion on Putin's intention just days after Trump posted on Truth Social that the Russian leader may be "tapping me along" on peace negotiations. In a Truth Social post published shortly after he met with President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Vatican on April 26, Trump said that "there was no reason for Putin to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days." "It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through banking or secondary sanctions?" Trump posted. When prompted by the suggestion that Putin may be stalling negotiations, Trump replied that it was "possible." "He could be tapping me along a little bit, I would say that he would like to stop the war," Trump said during the ABC News interview. Despite the suggestion that Putin may be attempting to stall negotiations, Trump added later during the ABC interview that "he's willing to stop the fighting." "I think he (wants peace), yes. I think he does," Trump said. Trump, who has promised to negotiate a peace in Ukraine within his first 100 days in office, has recently grown frustration over what he views as Moscow’s unwillingness to bring an end to the three-year war. U.S. officials have emphasized that this week will be crucial for determining whether the U.S. will continue its involvement in efforts to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, amid Trump's growing frustration. On April 28, Putin announced a three-day ceasefire from May 8 to 11 to mark the 80th anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany, a move that Trump's Special Envoy Keith Kellogg dismissed as "absurd." When asked if Trump trusted Putin, the U.S. president side-stepped the question during a testy exchange with the interviewer: "I don't trust a lot of people. I don't trust you." "Putin's dream was to take over the whole country. I think because of me, he's not gonna do that," Trump concluded. Despite ongoing peace negotiations, Russia has reportedly intensified its attacks in recent weeks, including in the Sumy region. During a temporary three-day ceasefire declared by Russia over Easter earlier this month, Zelensky accused Moscow of nearly 3,000 violations between April 19 and April 21. Trump promised peace in 100 days, but Russia’s violence against Ukraine has only escalated U.S. President Donald Trump’s promise to negotiate a peace in Ukraine within his first 100 days in office has collided with an unavoidable truth — a slew of Russian attacks during this time have spiked civilian death tolls, and a peace deal is still out of reach. “There is no The Kyiv IndependentAndrea Januta

'I don't trust a lot of people' — Trump offers contradictory views on Putin's intentions in interview on first 100 days U.S. President Donald Trump offered varying contradictory assessments of Russian President Vladimir Putin's intentions to put an end to the war in Ukraine during an interview with ABC News on April 29. The interview, focused on Trump's first 100 days in office, posed Trump's strikingly different opinion on Putin's intention just days after Trump posted on Truth Social that the Russian leader may be "tapping me along" on peace negotiations. In a Truth Social post published shortly after he met with President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Vatican on April 26, Trump said that "there was no reason for Putin to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days." "It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through banking or secondary sanctions?" Trump posted. When prompted by the suggestion that Putin may be stalling negotiations, Trump replied that it was "possible." "He could be tapping me along a little bit, I would say that he would like to stop the war," Trump said during the ABC News interview. Despite the suggestion that Putin may be attempting to stall negotiations, Trump added later during the ABC interview that "he's willing to stop the fighting." "I think he (wants peace), yes. I think he does," Trump said. Trump, who has promised to negotiate a peace in Ukraine within his first 100 days in office, has recently grown frustration over what he views as Moscow’s unwillingness to bring an end to the three-year war. U.S. officials have emphasized that this week will be crucial for determining whether the U.S. will continue its involvement in efforts to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, amid Trump's growing frustration. On April 28, Putin announced a three-day ceasefire from May 8 to 11 to mark the 80th anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany, a move that Trump's Special Envoy Keith Kellogg dismissed as "absurd." When asked if Trump trusted Putin, the U.S. president side-stepped the question during a testy exchange with the interviewer: "I don't trust a lot of people. I don't trust you." "Putin's dream was to take over the whole country. I think because of me, he's not gonna do that," Trump concluded. Despite ongoing peace negotiations, Russia has reportedly intensified its attacks in recent weeks, including in the Sumy region. During a temporary three-day ceasefire declared by Russia over Easter earlier this month, Zelensky accused Moscow of nearly 3,000 violations between April 19 and April 21. Trump promised peace in 100 days, but Russia’s violence against Ukraine has only escalated U.S. President Donald Trump’s promise to negotiate a peace in Ukraine within his first 100 days in office has collided with an unavoidable truth — a slew of Russian attacks during this time have spiked civilian death tolls, and a peace deal is still out of reach. “There is no The Kyiv IndependentAndrea Januta

21:34
Peace Power Sports (14/03/2024)

Peace Power Sports (14/03/2024)

18:10
‘Clearly, Ukraine is holding cards’ — economist on why US pressure won’t force Kyiv to concede If Ukraine’s military resistance to Russia’s full-scale invasion stunned the world, its economic resilience in the face of a larger, better-equipped enemy is a lesser-known story of the war. A combination of rapid state expansion, prudent monetary policy, active civil society in Ukraine, and crucial external funding from foreign partners since 2022 have helped Kyiv avoid the kind of catastrophic state collapse a war can trigger. As a result, Ukraine is far from “doomed to defeat” — even if the U.S. under President Donald Trump pulls out of the peace process as it has recently signaled it could, says Dr. Luke Cooper, associate professor at the London School of Economics, in a recent report analyzing Ukraine and Russia’s economies as the war grinds on and negotiations to end it continue. Russia, by contrast, is showing signs of economic strain. In addition to sanctions, a “splurge of subsidized, politically directed lending to favored firms — especially in the defense sector — alongside a radical tightening of monetary policy for the civilian economy, Russia appears to be heading for a credit crunch,” Cooper writes. While that doesn’t necessarily spell the collapse of Russia’s economy, a series of looming crises could be changing Moscow’s calculations in the negotiation process. The Kyiv Independent sat down with Cooper to discuss how Ukraine and Russia have reshaped their economies for war, what strengths and vulnerabilities each side faces, and how those realities are shaping peace talks. This interview has been edited for clarity. The Kyiv Independent: How have Ukraine and Russia responded similarly or differently to the war by reconfiguring their economies? Dr. Luke Cooper: If you looked at the Ukrainian and Russian economies a couple of years ago, there might have been a tendency for people like me to draw a contrast between the two sides and say that they’re very different. The interesting thing is that, in some ways, the two economies now have some similarities — they’re both quite conventional, classic war economies, where the state really intervenes on a very large scale to fund the war effort, driving economic demand and creating a situation where the private sector responds to that demand and becomes increasingly dependent on the state for its basic economic activity. The Kyiv Independent: In the report, you talk about how wars can be both a process of state-making and state “un-making” for countries, with recent conflicts around the world defined more by the latter. In this sense, what effect has Russia’s full-scale invasion had on the Russian and Ukrainian states? Dr. Luke Cooper: If Ukraine started at the outset thinking, “Oh, can we have a small state approach to the economy?” within about a year, you see this sharp expansion in state capacity. But it’s not just a story of very top-down centralization; there are quite a few nuances, like the role of local governments, decentralization, and civil society supporting the state. At the start of the (full-scale) war, people proactively raised money for the state and the armed forces on an enormously large scale. You have people rushing to pay their taxes. That is quite a big change from Ukraine’s political development from 2014 to 2022. There’s a tendency in a lot of conflicts and violence that we see globally for them to be marked by a kind of breakdown of state institutions and increasingly predatory activity by different actors using state access to extract rents and resources, where war becomes a kind of means to reproduce certain predatory interests. Had that happened in Ukraine, had we seen a kind of breakdown of institutions or rise of lawlessness, you could well imagine that that would be a form of victory for the Russian side because it wouldn’t be possible for Ukraine to integrate into the European Union. The Kyiv Independent: How has this process of state-making or state “un-making” happened in Russia? Dr. Luke Cooper: It's a slightly different story on the Russian side. In Russia, there’s this long trajectory toward state centralization. Starting in the 1990s, you had a situation of extreme breakdown and collapse of state authority in society and the rise of different kleptocratic rentier interest groups — “entrepreneurs of violence,” as some of the academic literature refers to them. The story of Putinism is one of restoring state power and authority over this criminalized economy. Over the course of the full-scale invasion, there’s been a continuation of that story — more centralization, more massive state investments in the military-industrial complex. This is all financed by fossil fuel rents, which leaves it highly vulnerable to fluctuations in global prices. A view from Russian oil company Tatneft in Tatarstan, Russia, on June 4, 2023. (Alexander Manzyuk/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images) The Kyiv Independent: Within these war-configured economies, what strengths and weaknesses does each side have? Dr. Luke Cooper: For the Ukrainian side, the external vulnerability and strength are its dependency on its allies. Ukraine is getting extremely large and continuous injections of money into its economy, and that's keeping the whole thing afloat. Its financial sources are now secure without U.S. assistance until 2027, which puts it in a very strong position, but were that money to disappear overnight, Ukraine would immediately suffer an enormous economic crisis. "There's always a crisis coming for the Russian economy, and it's just over the hill." In the case of Russia, its strength lies in its massive fossil fuel production capacity, particularly in oil. Oil is much more important (than gas) to the economy in terms of external earnings. At the end of the day, Russia consumes most of the gas it produces domestically. Oil accounts for something in the region of 30% to 50% of all government revenues over the last 10 years. Negative price movements pose a real problem for the Russian regime. Surely enough, in the first quarter of this year, there’s visible downward pressure on oil prices from global economic headwinds. And that’s going to pose really sharp distribution or financing choices for the Russian regime. It doesn't mean that it collapses overnight, but it does mean that its room for economic maneuver is becoming much, much more constrained. The Kyiv Independent: I think that's a good segue to the question always on everyone's mind — is there an impending economic crisis in Russia that changes the Kremlin’s calculations about the war, or will it be able to maneuver through whatever comes its way? Dr. Luke Cooper: We have a little bit of a boy who cries wolf problem here. There's always a crisis coming for the Russian economy, and it's just over the hill. Considerable caution needs to be exercised in terms of any immediate assessments of how things will play out, but there are certainly key sources of vulnerability that we can point to right now, particularly in the banking system.   There are two potential sources for banking crises at the moment: one from large-scale defaults in the commercial economy, and another from the politically directed corporate bond sector that has to be capitalized through continuous political investment in the military-industrial complex. And of course, this whole system is oil-dependent. (Russia’s) economy can be broadly divided into revenue-generating sectors, like fossil fuels, and revenue-dependent sectors. So the recent drop in global oil prices poses a real underlying threat to the architecture of the economy. The question then becomes: What does Russia do in the face of a potential banking crisis? Interestingly, this is now being discussed quite publicly within Russia. The Central Bank is leading the discussion, saying they need to control inflation while acknowledging the negative impact of high interest rates on the broader civilian economy. The overall room for maneuver among different actors is becoming more and more constrained by falling oil prices. The Kyiv Independent: So, what does that mean for Russia's war effort and its negotiating position? Dr. Luke Cooper: This is the million-dollar question. It’s a bit like Trump and tariffs — everyone is speculating about it, but it’s the decision of one man. You can draw a parallel to (Russian President Vladimir) Putin in Russia. We can speculate, but in the end, it is the decision of one person. Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, Russia, on April 16, 2025. (Contributor / Getty Images) One argument you hear from people focused on the military balance of forces is, "Well, look, at the end of the day, occupying 20% of Ukraine compared to the enormous loss of life Russian soldiers have experienced and the negative economic effects on Russia in terms of sanctions and everything — Putin has nothing really to show for what he's achieved there for the last three years, relative to the loss.” So that means Putin has to carry on fighting at least until he can claim maybe Dnipro, or even Odesa. That suggests his interest in negotiations is purely cynical, to see how much he can extract. That analysis may well be correct, but there's an alternative that comes from looking at the economy: If Russia is on the cusp of a serious banking crisis that will sharpen economic divisions and limit the regime’s ability to satisfy all the interest groups it needs to, then Putin may have an interest in a face-saving exit. He will try to extract as much as possible from the Americans and this Putin-sympathetic White House, but his engagement with negotiations may not be purely cynical. "Ukraine’s aim here is just to stay in the fight and hold the line." He may want to freeze the conflict at the current line of control and deal with some of the economic problems that Russia now faces at home, especially considering that the best thing you could do for the Russian economy right now would be lifting sanctions. That would be critical to refloating, if you like, the Russian economy in the global economy. Even basic things like access to sovereign debt markets, which Russia doesn’t have now, (would change). If America lifted financial sanctions, international investors could invest in Russian government debt again, which would be a huge transformation for Russia’s ability to finance the war. So there are things the Trump administration, and potentially Europe, can offer in negotiations that are quite attractive to the Russian regime. How Putin will internalize those questions, what advice he gets — I don't know. But you can observe that these things are being implicitly discussed in the Russian public space — insofar as it exists — and insofar as the Central Bank can still speak freely within certain boundaries about the state of the Russian economy. They're not ignorant of these trade-offs or the challenges that they're facing. They know the condition of the economy and what they could potentially gain from an armistice agreement. U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to members of the media in Washington, D.C., on April 29, 2025. (Andrew Harnik / Getty Images) The Kyiv Independent: You mention in your report that Ukraine isn’t actually as doomed to defeat, and that isn’t being taken into account in the peace negotiations. Why is that? Dr. Like Cooper: There isn’t that much emphasis on what Russia’s cards are here. Six to eight months ago, there was a lot of pressure on Pokrovsk and concern that it could fall, but it hasn’t. When we’re talking about a potential breakthrough on the front line, it’s not clear to me where exactly that would come and how significant the gains would be for Russia. I think that all feeds into an analysis that Ukraine’s aim here is just to stay in the fight and hold the line. It would be nice to have as much American military aid as possible, but I don’t think it’s decisive. If its economy is in good shape, if it's producing most of the weapons it needs to defend the front line inside Ukraine — which is critical — then Ukraine's game here is just to hold on. And as long as it's able to do that, it puts the pressure on the Russian side because they can't afford to run this war economy and this level of loss of human life in perpetuity. And I think that makes it quite different from situations of intractable violence, like you see in some other conflicts. This is a high-intensity conventional war. And at the end of the day, at some point, Russia will have to decide that it can no longer afford to fight this war, or some people in the Russian elite will decide that. The Kyiv Independent: Let’s say peace talks collapse and the U.S. withdraws from the process — how do you see this unfolding for both countries over the next several years? Dr. Luke Cooper: My working assumption is that there is enough support for Ukraine within the Republican Party to make it difficult for the Trump administration to unilaterally lift financial sanctions imposed on Russia. Given (the Trump administration’s) political tendencies and obvious affinity with what Putin stands for, I don't think that they will further escalate those actions either. If, in that context, the U.S. withdraws from peace talks and says, “Well, we’ve got other priorities, we tried to make it work, but we’re not interested,” that creates an interesting problem for Russia. In some ways, Ukraine would then be in a stronger position. With U.S. support gone, Russia loses its friendly actor in these negotiations — the state that, just recently, voted alongside Russia at the United Nations for the first time in years on Ukraine issues. That puts the onus on Ukraine and its European allies to meet Ukraine’s self-defense needs in terms of weapons and finance. It also means Russia would have to find a negotiating partner in Europe. If they want some kind of agreement, they would have to negotiate with Ukraine, Europe, and some kind of third-party country. Could China and Saudi Arabia, for example, work together to create a new negotiation dynamic, taking advantage of the U.S. exit from the field? That seems plausible, but I don’t think it would be disastrous for Ukraine in terms of the balance of forces. Of course, there is the human cost, but in terms of the military situation, Ukraine is still in a pretty strong position. The Kyiv Independent: That is a really interesting aspect given the Trump administration’s common refrains that seem to convey that Ukraine is in a very weak position. Dr. Luke Cooper: The funny thing about the line from Trump saying (to President Volodymyr Zelensky) that “you don’t hold the cards here” is that in many respects, Ukraine does hold cards. It has an army of nearly a million people with this incredible combat experience of defending its country for more than a decade of war with Russia. And it’s still here, despite being in this extremely asymmetric conflict. Of course (Ukraine) is holding cards in the negotiation, (and it has shown that) it can't be negotiated over the heads of. I think that’s another interpretation of what we’ve seen over the last two months of the U.S. holding bilateral talks with Moscow — it hasn’t got anything and it hasn’t forced capitulation from the Ukrainian side. Clearly Ukraine is holding cards. A minerals deal won’t stop Russia’s war News of Victoria Roshchyna’s brutal death at the hands of Russian captors shocked Ukraine and the world last week. Her body was returned mutilated — eyes gouged out, brain removed — bearing evidence of unspeakable brutality. It wasn’t an accident of war. It was a signature of it. This is The Kyiv IndependentAndrew Chakhoyan

‘Clearly, Ukraine is holding cards’ — economist on why US pressure won’t force Kyiv to concede If Ukraine’s military resistance to Russia’s full-scale invasion stunned the world, its economic resilience in the face of a larger, better-equipped enemy is a lesser-known story of the war. A combination of rapid state expansion, prudent monetary policy, active civil society in Ukraine, and crucial external funding from foreign partners since 2022 have helped Kyiv avoid the kind of catastrophic state collapse a war can trigger. As a result, Ukraine is far from “doomed to defeat” — even if the U.S. under President Donald Trump pulls out of the peace process as it has recently signaled it could, says Dr. Luke Cooper, associate professor at the London School of Economics, in a recent report analyzing Ukraine and Russia’s economies as the war grinds on and negotiations to end it continue. Russia, by contrast, is showing signs of economic strain. In addition to sanctions, a “splurge of subsidized, politically directed lending to favored firms — especially in the defense sector — alongside a radical tightening of monetary policy for the civilian economy, Russia appears to be heading for a credit crunch,” Cooper writes. While that doesn’t necessarily spell the collapse of Russia’s economy, a series of looming crises could be changing Moscow’s calculations in the negotiation process. The Kyiv Independent sat down with Cooper to discuss how Ukraine and Russia have reshaped their economies for war, what strengths and vulnerabilities each side faces, and how those realities are shaping peace talks. This interview has been edited for clarity. The Kyiv Independent: How have Ukraine and Russia responded similarly or differently to the war by reconfiguring their economies? Dr. Luke Cooper: If you looked at the Ukrainian and Russian economies a couple of years ago, there might have been a tendency for people like me to draw a contrast between the two sides and say that they’re very different. The interesting thing is that, in some ways, the two economies now have some similarities — they’re both quite conventional, classic war economies, where the state really intervenes on a very large scale to fund the war effort, driving economic demand and creating a situation where the private sector responds to that demand and becomes increasingly dependent on the state for its basic economic activity. The Kyiv Independent: In the report, you talk about how wars can be both a process of state-making and state “un-making” for countries, with recent conflicts around the world defined more by the latter. In this sense, what effect has Russia’s full-scale invasion had on the Russian and Ukrainian states? Dr. Luke Cooper: If Ukraine started at the outset thinking, “Oh, can we have a small state approach to the economy?” within about a year, you see this sharp expansion in state capacity. But it’s not just a story of very top-down centralization; there are quite a few nuances, like the role of local governments, decentralization, and civil society supporting the state. At the start of the (full-scale) war, people proactively raised money for the state and the armed forces on an enormously large scale. You have people rushing to pay their taxes. That is quite a big change from Ukraine’s political development from 2014 to 2022. There’s a tendency in a lot of conflicts and violence that we see globally for them to be marked by a kind of breakdown of state institutions and increasingly predatory activity by different actors using state access to extract rents and resources, where war becomes a kind of means to reproduce certain predatory interests. Had that happened in Ukraine, had we seen a kind of breakdown of institutions or rise of lawlessness, you could well imagine that that would be a form of victory for the Russian side because it wouldn’t be possible for Ukraine to integrate into the European Union. The Kyiv Independent: How has this process of state-making or state “un-making” happened in Russia? Dr. Luke Cooper: It's a slightly different story on the Russian side. In Russia, there’s this long trajectory toward state centralization. Starting in the 1990s, you had a situation of extreme breakdown and collapse of state authority in society and the rise of different kleptocratic rentier interest groups — “entrepreneurs of violence,” as some of the academic literature refers to them. The story of Putinism is one of restoring state power and authority over this criminalized economy. Over the course of the full-scale invasion, there’s been a continuation of that story — more centralization, more massive state investments in the military-industrial complex. This is all financed by fossil fuel rents, which leaves it highly vulnerable to fluctuations in global prices. A view from Russian oil company Tatneft in Tatarstan, Russia, on June 4, 2023. (Alexander Manzyuk/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images) The Kyiv Independent: Within these war-configured economies, what strengths and weaknesses does each side have? Dr. Luke Cooper: For the Ukrainian side, the external vulnerability and strength are its dependency on its allies. Ukraine is getting extremely large and continuous injections of money into its economy, and that's keeping the whole thing afloat. Its financial sources are now secure without U.S. assistance until 2027, which puts it in a very strong position, but were that money to disappear overnight, Ukraine would immediately suffer an enormous economic crisis. "There's always a crisis coming for the Russian economy, and it's just over the hill." In the case of Russia, its strength lies in its massive fossil fuel production capacity, particularly in oil. Oil is much more important (than gas) to the economy in terms of external earnings. At the end of the day, Russia consumes most of the gas it produces domestically. Oil accounts for something in the region of 30% to 50% of all government revenues over the last 10 years. Negative price movements pose a real problem for the Russian regime. Surely enough, in the first quarter of this year, there’s visible downward pressure on oil prices from global economic headwinds. And that’s going to pose really sharp distribution or financing choices for the Russian regime. It doesn't mean that it collapses overnight, but it does mean that its room for economic maneuver is becoming much, much more constrained. The Kyiv Independent: I think that's a good segue to the question always on everyone's mind — is there an impending economic crisis in Russia that changes the Kremlin’s calculations about the war, or will it be able to maneuver through whatever comes its way? Dr. Luke Cooper: We have a little bit of a boy who cries wolf problem here. There's always a crisis coming for the Russian economy, and it's just over the hill. Considerable caution needs to be exercised in terms of any immediate assessments of how things will play out, but there are certainly key sources of vulnerability that we can point to right now, particularly in the banking system.   There are two potential sources for banking crises at the moment: one from large-scale defaults in the commercial economy, and another from the politically directed corporate bond sector that has to be capitalized through continuous political investment in the military-industrial complex. And of course, this whole system is oil-dependent. (Russia’s) economy can be broadly divided into revenue-generating sectors, like fossil fuels, and revenue-dependent sectors. So the recent drop in global oil prices poses a real underlying threat to the architecture of the economy. The question then becomes: What does Russia do in the face of a potential banking crisis? Interestingly, this is now being discussed quite publicly within Russia. The Central Bank is leading the discussion, saying they need to control inflation while acknowledging the negative impact of high interest rates on the broader civilian economy. The overall room for maneuver among different actors is becoming more and more constrained by falling oil prices. The Kyiv Independent: So, what does that mean for Russia's war effort and its negotiating position? Dr. Luke Cooper: This is the million-dollar question. It’s a bit like Trump and tariffs — everyone is speculating about it, but it’s the decision of one man. You can draw a parallel to (Russian President Vladimir) Putin in Russia. We can speculate, but in the end, it is the decision of one person. Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, Russia, on April 16, 2025. (Contributor / Getty Images) One argument you hear from people focused on the military balance of forces is, "Well, look, at the end of the day, occupying 20% of Ukraine compared to the enormous loss of life Russian soldiers have experienced and the negative economic effects on Russia in terms of sanctions and everything — Putin has nothing really to show for what he's achieved there for the last three years, relative to the loss.” So that means Putin has to carry on fighting at least until he can claim maybe Dnipro, or even Odesa. That suggests his interest in negotiations is purely cynical, to see how much he can extract. That analysis may well be correct, but there's an alternative that comes from looking at the economy: If Russia is on the cusp of a serious banking crisis that will sharpen economic divisions and limit the regime’s ability to satisfy all the interest groups it needs to, then Putin may have an interest in a face-saving exit. He will try to extract as much as possible from the Americans and this Putin-sympathetic White House, but his engagement with negotiations may not be purely cynical. "Ukraine’s aim here is just to stay in the fight and hold the line." He may want to freeze the conflict at the current line of control and deal with some of the economic problems that Russia now faces at home, especially considering that the best thing you could do for the Russian economy right now would be lifting sanctions. That would be critical to refloating, if you like, the Russian economy in the global economy. Even basic things like access to sovereign debt markets, which Russia doesn’t have now, (would change). If America lifted financial sanctions, international investors could invest in Russian government debt again, which would be a huge transformation for Russia’s ability to finance the war. So there are things the Trump administration, and potentially Europe, can offer in negotiations that are quite attractive to the Russian regime. How Putin will internalize those questions, what advice he gets — I don't know. But you can observe that these things are being implicitly discussed in the Russian public space — insofar as it exists — and insofar as the Central Bank can still speak freely within certain boundaries about the state of the Russian economy. They're not ignorant of these trade-offs or the challenges that they're facing. They know the condition of the economy and what they could potentially gain from an armistice agreement. U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to members of the media in Washington, D.C., on April 29, 2025. (Andrew Harnik / Getty Images) The Kyiv Independent: You mention in your report that Ukraine isn’t actually as doomed to defeat, and that isn’t being taken into account in the peace negotiations. Why is that? Dr. Like Cooper: There isn’t that much emphasis on what Russia’s cards are here. Six to eight months ago, there was a lot of pressure on Pokrovsk and concern that it could fall, but it hasn’t. When we’re talking about a potential breakthrough on the front line, it’s not clear to me where exactly that would come and how significant the gains would be for Russia. I think that all feeds into an analysis that Ukraine’s aim here is just to stay in the fight and hold the line. It would be nice to have as much American military aid as possible, but I don’t think it’s decisive. If its economy is in good shape, if it's producing most of the weapons it needs to defend the front line inside Ukraine — which is critical — then Ukraine's game here is just to hold on. And as long as it's able to do that, it puts the pressure on the Russian side because they can't afford to run this war economy and this level of loss of human life in perpetuity. And I think that makes it quite different from situations of intractable violence, like you see in some other conflicts. This is a high-intensity conventional war. And at the end of the day, at some point, Russia will have to decide that it can no longer afford to fight this war, or some people in the Russian elite will decide that. The Kyiv Independent: Let’s say peace talks collapse and the U.S. withdraws from the process — how do you see this unfolding for both countries over the next several years? Dr. Luke Cooper: My working assumption is that there is enough support for Ukraine within the Republican Party to make it difficult for the Trump administration to unilaterally lift financial sanctions imposed on Russia. Given (the Trump administration’s) political tendencies and obvious affinity with what Putin stands for, I don't think that they will further escalate those actions either. If, in that context, the U.S. withdraws from peace talks and says, “Well, we’ve got other priorities, we tried to make it work, but we’re not interested,” that creates an interesting problem for Russia. In some ways, Ukraine would then be in a stronger position. With U.S. support gone, Russia loses its friendly actor in these negotiations — the state that, just recently, voted alongside Russia at the United Nations for the first time in years on Ukraine issues. That puts the onus on Ukraine and its European allies to meet Ukraine’s self-defense needs in terms of weapons and finance. It also means Russia would have to find a negotiating partner in Europe. If they want some kind of agreement, they would have to negotiate with Ukraine, Europe, and some kind of third-party country. Could China and Saudi Arabia, for example, work together to create a new negotiation dynamic, taking advantage of the U.S. exit from the field? That seems plausible, but I don’t think it would be disastrous for Ukraine in terms of the balance of forces. Of course, there is the human cost, but in terms of the military situation, Ukraine is still in a pretty strong position. The Kyiv Independent: That is a really interesting aspect given the Trump administration’s common refrains that seem to convey that Ukraine is in a very weak position. Dr. Luke Cooper: The funny thing about the line from Trump saying (to President Volodymyr Zelensky) that “you don’t hold the cards here” is that in many respects, Ukraine does hold cards. It has an army of nearly a million people with this incredible combat experience of defending its country for more than a decade of war with Russia. And it’s still here, despite being in this extremely asymmetric conflict. Of course (Ukraine) is holding cards in the negotiation, (and it has shown that) it can't be negotiated over the heads of. I think that’s another interpretation of what we’ve seen over the last two months of the U.S. holding bilateral talks with Moscow — it hasn’t got anything and it hasn’t forced capitulation from the Ukrainian side. Clearly Ukraine is holding cards. A minerals deal won’t stop Russia’s war News of Victoria Roshchyna’s brutal death at the hands of Russian captors shocked Ukraine and the world last week. Her body was returned mutilated — eyes gouged out, brain removed — bearing evidence of unspeakable brutality. It wasn’t an accident of war. It was a signature of it. This is The Kyiv IndependentAndrew Chakhoyan

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Ken Is Still @ Finance; OSP’s Probes Still Pending - Enimil Ashon Writes

Ken Is Still @ Finance; OSP’s Probes Still Pending - Enimil Ashon Writes

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Russia kills 1, injures 8 people in Donetsk Oblast The Russian military attacked Donetsk Oblast on May 17, killing one person and injuring an additional eight. This was reported by the Governor of Donetsk Oblast, Vadym Filashkin, on Telegram. The drone strike occurred in the morning and impacted the Yablunivka settlement, as well as Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, and Andriivka. In Yablunivka, Russian forces attacked the settlement with an FPV drone, killing a 27-year-old woman. Russian forces also used drones to strike a civilian car in Andriivka, injuring five people including one minor. An additional two people were injured in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Earlier in the day, Russian shelling hit 18 towns and villages in Donetsk Oblast, as well as other oblasts across Ukraine. Donetsk Oblast has been the epicenter of Russian aggression since 2014, with increased fighting after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Explosions heard in Kyiv amid Russian drone attack as Ukraine-Russia peace talks loom Explosions were heard in Kyiv amid a Russian drone attack on the capital in the early hours of May 16, as Ukraine and Russia are set to begin peace talks later in the day. The Kyiv IndependentVolodymyr Ivanyshyn

Russia kills 1, injures 8 people in Donetsk Oblast The Russian military attacked Donetsk Oblast on May 17, killing one person and injuring an additional eight. This was reported by the Governor of Donetsk Oblast, Vadym Filashkin, on Telegram. The drone strike occurred in the morning and impacted the Yablunivka settlement, as well as Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, and Andriivka. In Yablunivka, Russian forces attacked the settlement with an FPV drone, killing a 27-year-old woman. Russian forces also used drones to strike a civilian car in Andriivka, injuring five people including one minor. An additional two people were injured in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Earlier in the day, Russian shelling hit 18 towns and villages in Donetsk Oblast, as well as other oblasts across Ukraine. Donetsk Oblast has been the epicenter of Russian aggression since 2014, with increased fighting after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Explosions heard in Kyiv amid Russian drone attack as Ukraine-Russia peace talks loom Explosions were heard in Kyiv amid a Russian drone attack on the capital in the early hours of May 16, as Ukraine and Russia are set to begin peace talks later in the day. The Kyiv IndependentVolodymyr Ivanyshyn

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Man detained after allegedly killing draft officer in Ukraine's Poltava Oblast The Poltava Oblast National Police detained a man who allegedly shot a draft officer, stole his weapon, and escaped with another man overnight on Jan. 31. The armed attack happened at a fuel station near Pyriatyn during the escort of conscripts to the 199th training center, the Ukraine's Ground Forces said on Feb. 1. According to a Ground Forces statement, an unidentified man wearing a gray balaclava and military pants approached a serviceman of the Poltava draft office, threatening him with a hunting rifle and demanding that he hand over his weapon. "When he refused, the man shot the soldier. The soldier died on the spot as a result of a serious injury," the statement said. The attacker seized the soldier's assault rifle and fled with one of the mobilized conscripts after the attack. Within a few hours of search operations, the police established the location of the attackers, according to a statement by the Poltava Oblast National Police. The man who allegedly shot the soldier was detained, and investigators seized his weapon, the report said. It also specified the shooter was a resident of Poltava region born in 1984. His accomplice was a resident of Poltava born in 1988. Police detained a man who allegedly killed a draft officer in Poltava Oblast on Jan. 31, 2025. (Poltava National Police / Official website) The prosecutor's office said it had launched a criminal investigation. "The Ground Forces Command strongly condemns the armed attack on the serviceman of the Poltava Regional conscription office and demands a prompt investigation of this crime and severe punishment for the perpetrators," the Ground Forces wrote in their initial statement. Ukraine has long struggled with manpower shortages on the front to compensate for losses and the need to rotate soldiers who have been on fighting since the start of the full-scale invasion. Corrupt schemes uncovered throughout the full-scale invasion helping men avoid service have added to the difficulty of shoring up more soldiers for the war. ‘If half the people go home tomorrow, Putin will kill us all’ — Zelensky defends mobilization “If tomorrow, for example, half of the army just goes home, then we should have surrendered on the first day. That’s the way it is. Because if half the people go home tomorrow, Putin will kill us all.” The Kyiv IndependentAbbey Fenbert

Man detained after allegedly killing draft officer in Ukraine's Poltava Oblast The Poltava Oblast National Police detained a man who allegedly shot a draft officer, stole his weapon, and escaped with another man overnight on Jan. 31. The armed attack happened at a fuel station near Pyriatyn during the escort of conscripts to the 199th training center, the Ukraine's Ground Forces said on Feb. 1. According to a Ground Forces statement, an unidentified man wearing a gray balaclava and military pants approached a serviceman of the Poltava draft office, threatening him with a hunting rifle and demanding that he hand over his weapon. "When he refused, the man shot the soldier. The soldier died on the spot as a result of a serious injury," the statement said. The attacker seized the soldier's assault rifle and fled with one of the mobilized conscripts after the attack. Within a few hours of search operations, the police established the location of the attackers, according to a statement by the Poltava Oblast National Police. The man who allegedly shot the soldier was detained, and investigators seized his weapon, the report said. It also specified the shooter was a resident of Poltava region born in 1984. His accomplice was a resident of Poltava born in 1988. Police detained a man who allegedly killed a draft officer in Poltava Oblast on Jan. 31, 2025. (Poltava National Police / Official website) The prosecutor's office said it had launched a criminal investigation. "The Ground Forces Command strongly condemns the armed attack on the serviceman of the Poltava Regional conscription office and demands a prompt investigation of this crime and severe punishment for the perpetrators," the Ground Forces wrote in their initial statement. Ukraine has long struggled with manpower shortages on the front to compensate for losses and the need to rotate soldiers who have been on fighting since the start of the full-scale invasion. Corrupt schemes uncovered throughout the full-scale invasion helping men avoid service have added to the difficulty of shoring up more soldiers for the war. ‘If half the people go home tomorrow, Putin will kill us all’ — Zelensky defends mobilization “If tomorrow, for example, half of the army just goes home, then we should have surrendered on the first day. That’s the way it is. Because if half the people go home tomorrow, Putin will kill us all.” The Kyiv IndependentAbbey Fenbert

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